Without Favourite Market in Horse Racing: When Removing the Favourite Creates Value

There is a race I still think about from Ascot in 2023. The favourite was a monster — 4/6, practically unbeatable on form. I had no interest in backing it at those odds, but I fancied the second pick in the market at 5/1 to beat the rest if the favourite lived up to billing. The without favourite market let me back exactly that proposition, and when my horse finished a clear second behind the favourite, the bet paid out. Without that market, I would have walked away with nothing despite being right about every horse except the winner.

The without favourite market is one of the most underused tools in UK racing, and I think that is because most punters either do not know it exists or assume it is complicated. It is neither. Remote horse racing betting generated 766.7 million pounds in gross gambling yield during the 2024-25 period, and a small but growing slice of that figure flows through specialist markets like this one. Let me walk you through how it is priced, when it creates genuine value, and where its limits sit.

How the Without Favourite Market Is Priced

I remember the first time I asked a bookmaker how they price this market, and the answer surprised me with its simplicity. They take the standard win market, remove the favourite, and recalculate the odds on the remaining runners as if the favourite does not exist.

In a standard win market, the favourite’s probability is priced into the overall book. A 4/6 favourite carries an implied probability of roughly 60%. When you remove that 60% from the equation, the remaining probability — plus the bookmaker’s overround — gets redistributed across the rest of the field. A horse that was 5/1 in the full market (implied probability around 17%) might become 2/1 in the without favourite market (implied probability around 33%), because the denominator has shrunk.

The key insight is that the without favourite price is not simply the full-market price minus some arbitrary amount. It is a recalculated market. The bookmaker removes the favourite and rebalances the book from scratch. This means the odds on every remaining runner change, and the relationships between them shift too. A horse that was third favourite at 8/1 might become the without favourite favourite at 3/1. The entire competitive picture reshapes.

GGY from remote horse racing hit 766.7 million pounds in 2024-25. Even a fraction of a percentage point of that flowing toward without favourite markets represents meaningful liquidity, which means the prices you get are increasingly competitive rather than inflated by low demand.

What catches people out is that the without favourite market always refers to the official market favourite at the off, not the horse you personally think is most likely to win. If the favourite drifts from 4/6 to 2/1 on the morning of the race and another horse becomes favourite, the without favourite market recalibrates around the new favourite. You are betting against the horse the market thinks is best, not the one the racecard tipster has selected.

Scenarios Where Without Favourite Bets Add Value

Last season I used the without favourite market on nine occasions and made a profit on five of them. That is a hit rate I would struggle to match in the standard win market, and it is not a coincidence. The without favourite market is most valuable in specific race conditions, and I have learned to be selective about when I use it.

The first scenario is the dominant favourite in a quality field. When a horse is 4/6 or shorter and the second favourite is 5/1 or longer, the win market offers you two unappealing choices: back the favourite at odds that barely justify the risk, or back a longer-priced runner who needs to beat the favourite to win. The without favourite market removes that binary. If you believe the second or third in the market will outrun the rest of the field regardless of the favourite, this is your bet.

The second scenario is when you have strong form opinions about everything except the favourite. Maybe you have studied the card and concluded that three of the runners are outclassed, two are on the wrong ground, and one is returning from injury. Your analysis leaves two genuine contenders behind the favourite. The without favourite market lets you act on that analysis without needing to also assess the favourite’s chances.

The third scenario is ante-post positioning where the favourite is near-certain to run and win but you want exposure to the race. Championship races at Cheltenham sometimes produce favourites at prohibitively short prices months before the event. Taking a without favourite position on an ante-post basis gives you a way into the race at odds that justify the ante-post risk. The average per-race turnover on Premier Fixtures grew 2.7% in 2025, and championship races are precisely the premium fixtures where without favourite liquidity is deepest.

Where it does not work: big-field handicaps. In a 16-runner handicap where the favourite is 5/1 and the second favourite is 7/1, removing the favourite barely changes the competitive picture. The market was already open, and the without favourite prices end up only marginally shorter than the full-market equivalents. The margin you give up in overround is not justified by the rebalancing effect.

Availability and Limitations of the Market

Not every operator offers without favourite markets, and those that do tend to restrict them to higher-profile races. Graded races, listed contests, and feature handicaps at major meetings are the most reliable places to find the market. Midweek all-weather handicaps at Wolverhampton or Chelmsford rarely carry a without favourite option, because the demand is too low for bookmakers to justify building the market.

Liquidity matters. Even where the market is offered, the prices on lower-profile races can be wide — meaning the bookmaker’s overround is higher and the value to you is lower. I tend to use without favourite bets only on races where at least three or four major operators are quoting prices, because competition between them tightens the spreads and brings the odds closer to fair value.

Timing also plays a role. Without favourite markets on the day of the race are more liquid and more accurately priced than those posted several days in advance. The market needs to know who the favourite is before it can price the without favourite field, and that picture only crystallises as the race approaches and the betting market matures.

One limitation that occasionally bites: if joint favourites are declared, some operators void the without favourite market entirely because the calculation becomes ambiguous. Others remove both joint favourites and price the remaining field. The rules vary, so checking the operator’s specific terms before placing the bet is a habit worth building. For a broader look at specialist market types including this one, the full breakdown of bet types and their mechanics provides useful context.

Prepared by the Betting Online Horse Racing editorial staff.